The Line

Cowboys -4.5. O/U 53.5 points. 

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys opened their 2020 campaign with a 3 point loss to the Rams. Which on the surface, isn’t the worst thing in the world. But when you examine how poorly the defense looked in the first half, the offense looked in the second half, and the plethora of injuries they came out of the game with…

It was a bit of a disaster.

Their home opener should be a celebratory affair, but the banged up Cowboys are against it this week. They match up well on paper with the Falcons defense, but could struggle with their Matt Ryan-led passing game.

Atlanta Falcons

The Falcons opened their season up with a blowout home loss to Seattle. Unable to stop the Seahawks passing game all night, the Falcons were forced to play catchup for much of the game.

They posted explosive numbers offensively, and their passing game is still loaded with firepower. Matt Ryan has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league for a while now, and Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley form a tough receiving duo to stop.

The Cowboys need to control the tempo of this game offensively, and find a way to block up Grady Jarrett despite their injuries across the offensive line. Jarrett isn’t quite Aaron Donald, but he is a formidable inside pass rusher that could break this game.

Trends

• The last four games the Falcons have played against the NFC have gone over.
• The score total has hit over the last four times the Cowboys have played after a loss.
• The over is 12-4 the Cowboys’ last 16 conference games.
• The Falcons are 4-0 against the spread their last 4 games as a road dog.

Prediction

Man, this is a tough one. I actually took Falcons money-line when it was at +185 because the value felt way too good to miss. The Cowboys need this one on Sunday, but they are just too injured to trust right now.

I’ll go Falcons +4.5 on Sunday.