The Line

Dallas Cowboys -4.5. O/U 56 points. 

Dallas Cowboys

It’s been a wild start to the Cowboys’ 2020 season. Despite massive preseason hype around their roster talent the Cowboys are 1-2, with both losses coming to two of the top NFC contenders. You could argue the Cowboys are an onside kick away from 0-3, but they’re also a bad call or bounce away from 2-1.

So who knows.

Dallas’ offense is one of the league’s best, and it doesn’t even feel like they’ve reached their apex just yet. Upfront they’ll have a tough matchup with Cleveland’s pass rush, but if they can block up and give Prescott time, the Cowboys can shred the Browns backend.

How will they stop the Browns? Well that’s a much different question.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns are off to an uncharacteristically positive start to the season, but there still feels like something is off with this team.

Cleveland has a super talented roster, led by arguably the best running back tandem in Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb, as well as two awesome wide outs in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry. They still have a big question mark at quarterback, however, as Baker Mayfield looks uncomfortable in the pocket on most snaps.

Defensively we know how good their pass rush can be, especially with the dynamic Myles Garrett rushing off the edge.

Cleveland is currently 25th in offensive DVOA, but 8th in defensive DVOA, signaling that the eye test matches the numbers with this Browns team.

Trends

• The Cowboys are 0-3 against the spread this season, and each game has been decided by 7 or less points.
• The score total has gone over in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 14 home games as a favorite.
• The Browns are 1-5 against the spread their last 6 games.
• The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 games as an underdog.

Prediction

Once again we may be in for a shootout. The Cowboys can’t stop anything defensively right now, but luckily Baker Mayfield isn’t nearly the quality of quarterback that they saw last week in Seattle.

I’ll take the Browns +4.5 in this one, as I expect a close game that comes down to a field goal.