Prior to the start of the regular season, this week four match up between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions looked like a possible chance for Dallas to earn a tie breaker in the NFC wild card race. Instead, with both teams at 1-2, this looks more like an early elimination game.

Neither Dallas nor Detroit has inspired much confidence from their fan base, and Vegas is defaulting to the 3-point home favorite here. The point total is set at 43.5, which can be explained simply by how abysmal the Cowboys offense has looked through three games, but also how strong their defense has played.

Dallas -3, o/u 43.5 points.

Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys went on the road and fell to the previously winless Seattle Seahawks last week, looking flat-out bad throughout. Their offense, which hasn’t been able to create big plays or sustain drives this season, failed to muster up any productivity until it was too late.

What might’ve been more disappointing, though, was how poor their defensive line played in the loss. Outside of DeMarcus Lawrence who couldn’t shake the increased attention Seattle paid him, no Cowboys defensive linemen was able to do much last week.

While the cornerbacks played pretty well, especially Byron Jones, the safety play cost the Cowboys multiple scores.

Dallas returns home this week, where they got their only victory thus far, as a 3 point favorite.

Detroit Lions

After an embarrassing blowout loss at home to the New York Jets to open their season, and a tough road defeat against the 49ers, the Lions proved once again that the NFL makes no sense in Week 3 by running over the New England Patriots.

Matt Stafford has had an up and down season thus far, but when he is on he is one of the league’s better passers. Surrounded by offensive talent like Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate, this Lions passing game is always a threat to take off.

Defensively the Lions are far-from-great, though they do have one of the league’s best passing defenses through three games. Their defensive line is arguably the worst of the four Dallas has seen thus far, however, which should bode well for their struggling pass protection.

Trends

• The score total has gone over 6 of the last 7 Cowboys/Lions games.
• The score total has gone under in each of the Cowboys’ last 5 games.
• The Lions are 5-2 against the spread their last 7 games.
• The Lions are 6-1-1 against the spread their 7 games against teams with a losing record.
• The Cowboys are 7-3 straight up their last 10 games against the Lions.

Prediction

With how inconsistent these two teams have looked through three games, it’s damn near impossible to call this game. The Cowboys offense has been horrific, making me think about taking the under for a third time this season.

43.5 points is a low total, though, and 61% of the bets are coming in on the over according to OddSharks. Bettors aren’t showing much confidence in the Cowboys as a home favorite either, with only 42% of the bets coming in on Cowboys -3.

I’d advise you stay away from this one, but I’ll take the Cowboys to win outright and the score total to gone under on Sunday.