Aside from the first half against Arizona two weeks ago, the Dallas Cowboys have been one of the league’s best teams.
The Cowboys have given up just 41 points this year, lowest among all the NFL teams. But 21 of them came in that half against the Cardinals.
Dallas’ offense has scored 96 of the team’s 124 points – the defense has scored four touchdowns.
The offense’s numbers should be much higher. They have settled for 11 field goals kicked from inside the 30.
Aside from the 28-16 loss – when the entire team failed to show up in the first 30 minutes – Dallas has dominated its opponents.
A 40-0 blitz over the Giants, a 30-10 win over the Jets, and last week’s 38-3 rout of the Patriots make up the Cowboys’ resume.
So the question roughly a quarter of the way into the 2023 season is: Who are the Dallas Cowboys?
Are they the team that has routed three opponents to the tune of 108-13? Or are they the team that couldn’t get out of their own way in Arizona?
On Sunday night in San Francisco, the 49ers will put the question – and the Cowboys – to the test.
Season Enders
The last two seasons the 49ers have ended the Cowboys season in the playoffs. In 2021 it was a wild card loss at AT&T Stadium.
Last year’s Divisional round loss was especially brutal. The Cowboys’ defense had held the 49ers in check.
But two critical interceptions put the defense in poor position. The 49ers took advantage of the errors to advance to the NFC Championship game.
The ghosts of that loss will be lingering over Dallas when they hit the field in Santa Clara on Sunday night.
If there is one good trend in Dallas’ favor it is that the Cowboys have won the last four regular season games between the teams in San Francisco.
They’ve won five of the last six meetings in the regular season in San Francsico overall.
The last time the 49ers won a regular season game came in 2014 at AT&T Stadium. The 49ers lead the series in the regular season 14-15-1.
The Cowboys are 5-4 against San Francisco in the playoffs for a 19-19-1 record overall between the two teams.
Rush Defense Will Be Tested
Looking at the first series in the season opener, as well as the first half against Arizona, the Cowboys’ weakness on defense is the run game.
Which is a big concern given the 49ers can run the ball – with Christian McCaffery in the backfield. Should Dallas sell out to stop him, the 49ers have George Kittle.
If Dallas can get the 49ers away from run, as they did in their three wins, they should win this game.
But if Purdy and McCaffery run wild as Saquon Barkley and Daniel Jones did on that first drive of the season and James Connor and Joshua Dobbs did two weeks ago…
Yeah, its going to get ugly real quick.
San Francisco Can Score
The 49ers offense – fueled by McCaffrey averaging 150 yards from scrimmage per game – scored 30 points in each of their first three games.
They put up 35 last week against the Cardinals – the same Arizona team that held Dallas to 16 points. And the 49ers have a solid pass game too.
Dallas’ defense is going to have to find a way to limit Kittle while stopping McCaffrey.
If they can put the game on Brock Purdy’s shoulders that will allow Micah Parsons and company to go hunting.
Dan Quinn has his work cut out for him this week.
But as 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan was his offensive coordinator in Atlanta, he probably has a few ideas. He’ll need every one of them.
The Defense Isn’t Shabby Either
The matchup to watch when Dallas has the ball will be Nick Bosa going up against Terrance Steele. The Cowboys need to be able to run and Prescott needs time in the pocket.
How Steele fares on Sunday will determine how the Cowboys offense will fare.
The 49ers have only given up 16 more points than Dallas’ defense has so far. But they’ve also yielded over 350 yards each to the Rams and the Cardinals.
The points will be out there for the Cowboys’ taking.
But if Dallas’ well-chronicled struggles in the red zone continue they may rue the points they’ll leave out on the field.
Which Way, Men Of The Blue Star?
It is usually folly to say a Week 5 game is a make or break game for a team. Especially one that is 3-1 on the year.
But given recent history with San Francisco, this is a game that will have implications throughout the year.
Should both teams be tied in the W-L records, the winner of this game gets home field should they meet again in the playoffs.
Where would you rather see a potential NFC Championship game be played? Out west in Santa Clara or at home in Arlington?
Nor can Dallas afford to get two games behind the Eagles again and try to play catchup the rest of the season as they did last year.
The Eagles have road games against the Rams and Jets coming up. Neither opponent is a pushover and the Eagles are not guaranteed to win both.
Then Philadelphia hits a meat-grinder of a schedule.
They host Miami then travel to Washington to play a team that nearly beat them last week.
After that they host the Cowboys, travel to Kansas City, then host the Bills, and the 49ers. They cap off the gauntlet with road games against the Cowboys and Seahawks.
Philadelphia could easily go 3-7 during that stretch.
Dallas would be well advised to build up a good cushion during that stretch instead of just making up ground.
Because just as the Eagles end that brutal schedule, Dallas has two road games in December against the Bills and Dolphins. Then they host a very good Lions team.
We’ll find out who the Cowboys are on Sunday night. We may find out a lot on how the season will go too.